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RBA Lifts Cash Rate to 4.1% in Narrow 5–4 Vote as Oil Shock Fans Inflation Risks

Policymakers acted to head off inflation risks from a Middle East oil price surge.

Overview

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1% in a closely split 5–4 decision, marking a second hike in as many months.
  • Board statements cited sharply higher fuel costs tied to Middle East conflict and rising short‑term inflation expectations, with inflation seen staying above the 2–3% target for longer.
  • The RBA acknowledged substantial uncertainty and warned higher energy prices could also weigh on growth even as they push up near‑term inflation.
  • Households face larger repayments, with estimates of about $90 more per month on a $600,000 mortgage and roughly $120 extra on an average new $736,000 loan.
  • Money markets had priced roughly a two‑thirds chance of a March move and some lenders, including ANZ, lifted fixed rates ahead of the decision, reflecting expectations of tighter policy.