Overview
- Dalio says the world has entered the early phase of a global war that will not end soon, and he wrote before a brief US–Iran ceasefire while warning markets are wrong to expect a quick return to normal.
- He groups the shooting wars in Ukraine and across Israel–Gaza–Lebanon–Syria with tensions that involve Yemen and Sudan and with fights over trade, technology, finance, and influence as parts of one system.
- He argues China and Russia are the relative winners so far as countries sort into opposing blocs that are visible in alliances, UN votes, leaders’ statements, and coordinated policies.
- He warns the United States looks overextended with 750 to 800 bases worldwide and says great-power contests tend to be decided by endurance, which he argues is a US weakness over long stretches.
- He puts the chance of at least one major additional conflict in the next five years above 50%, citing flashpoints such as Taiwan, the South China Sea, and North Korea, and he flags chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz as risks to oil flows and fuel costs.