Overview
- Multiple official agencies and major modelling centres reported in late July that El Niño is rapidly intensifying and is likely to shape global climate through the rest of 2026 and into early 2027.
- Models and the Bureau of Meteorology show the Pacific warming index has climbed unusually fast and many forecasts project a peak between November 2026 and January 2027, with some projections approaching or exceeding previous record values.
- Regional forecasts warn uneven impacts: higher typhoon risk for parts of East Asia, heatwaves and drought across South‑East Asia, India and Australia, coastal flooding and inland drought in parts of Latin America, and both floods and drought in eastern and southern Africa.
- Reinsurers and analysts note rising natural‑catastrophe exposure after nearly US$112 billion in global losses in H1 2026, and UN agencies and humanitarian groups are scaling anticipatory action to protect food systems and vulnerable communities.
- Agencies stress clear communication and monitoring as some scientists and media use the term “super El Niño” while bodies such as the WMO and national services say that label is not an official operational category.