Overview
- This week multiple agencies said El Niño is rapidly strengthening and very likely to reach a “very strong” or record-level event, with many models projecting sea-surface temperature anomalies near or above +2.9°C in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
- NOAA assigns high odds that the event will persist into early 2027 and that a strong El Niño will dominate seasonal weather patterns through the northern winter, increasing the chance that 2026 or 2027 will rank among the warmest years on record.
- Forecasts point to clearer regional shifts: wetter-than-normal conditions for the Horn of Africa, parts of southern Europe and the southern United States, and increased drought risk for the Indian subcontinent, Australia and southern Africa.
- International bodies and regional authorities, including the WMO, UN and the African Union, have moved from assessment to preparedness and are urging strengthened early-warning systems, water management and prepositioning of humanitarian aid.
- The event raises concrete sector risks—reduced or increased solar output by region, strains on water supplies and hydropower, threats to crops and supply chains—and planners are translating forecasts into contingency and financing decisions.