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last mo.

Rapid Study Finds Climate Change Made Extreme Fire Conditions Up to Three Times More Likely in Chile and Patagonia

Researchers tie the surge in fire risk to a decade-long drying trend intensified by warming.

Un bombero trabaja en el sitio de un incendio forestal, en la localidad de Epuyén, provincia de Chubut
Jonathan Escalona, sobre el tejado de su casa, dañada por los incendios en Lirquen, Chile, el 20 de enero de 2026. (AP Foto/Javier Torres)
Un bombero combate un incendio forestal en Epuyén, Chubut, días atrás, en medio de los fuegos que arrasan la Patagonia argentina y movilizan a cientos de brigadistas
La conclusión surgió de World Weather Attribution (WWA), una iniciativa científica que investiga eventos climáticos extremos poco después de que ocurran. 

Overview

  • The World Weather Attribution analysis reports the hot, dry, windy conditions were about 200% more likely in central and southern Chile and roughly 150% more likely in southern Argentina than in a preindustrial climate.
  • Early-summer rainfall declined by around 25% in Chile and 20% in Argentine Patagonia, compounding long-term aridity and leaving vegetation critically dry.
  • Investigators say most ignitions were human-caused, with some lightning-triggered fires in Argentina, and flammable pine and eucalyptus plantations plus invasive species amplified spread.
  • In January, Chile recorded 23 deaths and more than 1,000 structures destroyed, while at least 45,000 hectares of native forest burned in Argentine Patagonia, including parts of UNESCO-listed Los Alerces.
  • The rapid attribution study has not been peer-reviewed; Chile expanded wildfire budgets by about 110% in recent years as Argentine austerity cuts are cited as undermining preparedness, with some fires still active.