Overview
- WMO confirmation of swift Pacific changes aligns with ERA5 and other models showing a sharp upper‑ocean warm-up, with anomalies projected at roughly +1.4 to +3.1°C by late Northern Hemisphere summer.
- Forecast analyses now elevate the chance that 2026 challenges temperature records and indicate 2027 is very likely to become the warmest year, according to updates cited by Berkeley Earth’s Zeke Hausfather.
- El Niño typically peaks near year‑end, and its heat influence often maximizes the following year, supporting expectations that global temperatures will crest in 2027.
- A new study by Stefan Rahmstorf and Grant Forster finds the greenhouse‑gas‑driven warming rate has accelerated from about 0.2°C per decade before 2015 to roughly 0.35°C since, increasing the odds of record highs.
- For Central Europe and Germany, El Niño modestly raises the statistical likelihood of hotter summer spells, though outcomes hinge on North Atlantic temperatures, the jet stream and wider European pressure patterns.