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Radev’s Party Leads on Eve of Bulgaria’s Snap Election

Post-election deals will set the limits on any shift toward Moscow.

A drone view shows farmer Nikolay Vasiliev riding a horse next to his cattle, near the village of Gorno pole, Bulgaria, April 8, 2026. REUTERS/Stoyan Nenov
Supporters of former Bulgarian President Rumen Radev hold phone lights during the closing rally of his campaign in Sofia, Thursday, April 16, 2026, as Bulgaria heads into an early parliamentary election. (AP Photo/Valentina Petrova)
Bulgarian farmer Nikolay Vasiliev poses for a picture with his horse, near the village of Gorno Pole, Bulgaria, April 8, 2026. REUTERS/Stoyan Nenov
Former Bulgarian President Rumen Radev, center, poses with a supporter at the closing rally of his campaign, in Sofia, Thursday, April 16, 2026, as Bulgaria heads into an early parliamentary election. (AP Photo/Valentina Petrova)

Overview

  • Polling one day before Sunday’s vote shows Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria in first place with roughly 30%–34% support while prediction markets price his chances of becoming prime minister above 90%.
  • Radev campaigns on dismantling what he calls an oligarchic system while holding pro-Russian positions, including opposition to Bulgaria’s new euro adoption and to deeper security ties with Ukraine.
  • No party is forecast to win a majority, and Radev has ruled out deals with GERB and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, leaving a potential but fraught path to talks with the pro‑EU PP‑DB bloc.
  • Authorities report nationwide raids against vote-buying and have asked the EU to help counter Russian disinformation, and pollsters expect turnout to climb above 50% compared with recent elections.
  • The snap election follows December 2025 anti-corruption protests that toppled the government, marking the eighth national vote in five years as Bulgaria balances eurozone entry with EU and NATO constraints that could temper rapid policy shifts.