Overview
- Polling one day before Sunday’s vote shows Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria in first place with roughly 30%–34% support while prediction markets price his chances of becoming prime minister above 90%.
- Radev campaigns on dismantling what he calls an oligarchic system while holding pro-Russian positions, including opposition to Bulgaria’s new euro adoption and to deeper security ties with Ukraine.
- No party is forecast to win a majority, and Radev has ruled out deals with GERB and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, leaving a potential but fraught path to talks with the pro‑EU PP‑DB bloc.
- Authorities report nationwide raids against vote-buying and have asked the EU to help counter Russian disinformation, and pollsters expect turnout to climb above 50% compared with recent elections.
- The snap election follows December 2025 anti-corruption protests that toppled the government, marking the eighth national vote in five years as Bulgaria balances eurozone entry with EU and NATO constraints that could temper rapid policy shifts.