Particle.news
Download on the App Store

Quantum Pure-Plays Soar in 2025 as Weak Fundamentals Put 2026 to the Test

Investor enthusiasm reflects trillion-dollar market forecasts alongside prospective institutional funding.

Overview

  • Over the past year, IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing Inc. posted gains of roughly 43%, 545%, 458%, and 67%, outpacing the Nasdaq’s rise.
  • Rigetti reported $10.8 million in 2024 revenue but only about $5.2 million year to date in 2025, with two 9-qubit Novera sales totaling $5.7 million not expected to be booked until the first half of 2026.
  • Rigetti’s losses have swelled to more than $350 million annually, analysts do not project profitability through 2030, and American Assets, Vanguard, and BlackRock together hold nearly 20% of its shares.
  • Quantum Computing Inc. generated roughly $500,000 in revenue over the last year as its share count nearly doubled, even as management touts a $66 billion photonic circuits market and partnerships with NASA, Accenture, BMW, and EY.
  • D-Wave pursues quantum annealing geared to optimization tasks such as routing and scheduling, a bet that could falter if annealing proves less useful at scale than gate-based designs.