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Putin Acknowledges Early‑2026 Slump as Deficit Swells and Crisis Warnings Mount

Swedish intelligence says Moscow understates the budget deficit.

Overview

  • In a televised meeting, Vladimir Putin said GDP fell a combined 1.8% in January and February and ordered detailed plans from his top economic team.
  • Russia reported a $58.6 billion budget shortfall for the first quarter as March oil tax revenue dropped by half from a year earlier.
  • Central bank chief Elvira Nabiullina said unemployment is 2% and labor shortages are pushing up prices, with high interest rates now squeezing borrowers and banks.
  • Russian officials and a state‑backed think tank have warned that a banking crisis could hit later this year if loan problems deepen and depositors pull cash.
  • Sweden’s spy chief said Russia manipulates economic data, understating the deficit by about $30 billion and inflation, and estimated Urals crude would need to stay above $100 a barrel for a year to close the gap.