Overview
- Independent forecasts center on a 3.4%–3.6% cost‑of‑living adjustment for 2027, with the Senior Citizens League at 3.6% and analyst Mary Johnson at 3.4%.
- The Social Security Administration sets the final COLA using the average change in the CPI‑W for July, August and September and will publish the 2027 figure on Oct. 14.
- The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects a roughly 3.25% rise in the standard Part B premium for 2027, which is slightly below current COLA projections and could leave retirees with more net gain than in recent years.
- Energy price swings and recent trade and tariff actions are the main sources of uncertainty that could push August or September CPI‑W readings higher and change the final COLA.
- More than 71 million people receive Social Security and many retirees rely on those checks for expenses, but critics note CPI‑W may understate seniors’ costs and past COLAs have not fully restored purchasing power.