Overview
- The National Association of Probation Officers said roughly nine in ten members backed industrial action in an indicative ballot reported on Aug 11, and it plans a formal legal ballot within weeks that could enable strikes or overtime refusals in early to mid‑October.
- If formal action goes ahead it may overlap with Labour’s scheme to release about 5,000 people over ten months starting in October, because most early releases require probation supervision and extra workloads for officers.
- The union is demanding a 12% pay rise and wants the recent £700 million probation investment directed toward recruiting frontline staff rather than other uses.
- Official figures show a shortfall in experienced probation officers with 5,437 full‑time officers in post against a target of 7,110, while the Ministry of Justice says it exceeded 2025–26 trainee targets with 1,389 starters and highlights recent pay rises and technology investment.
- Inspectors and union leaders warn that understaffing and reliance on overtime have left the service stressed and that disruption during the rollout could reduce supervision, increase risk of reoffending, and create acute operational and political pressure because high‑profile cases are included in the cohort.