Overview
- Data from the Independent Schools Council's January census show private school enrolment is roughly 30,000 lower than before the tax change, with about 20,000 of that loss occurring in the last year.
- The steepest proportional falls are in entry years, with Year 1 and Year 12 down about 6.6% and Year 3 down about 6.2%, suggesting new intakes are being deterred more than exam-year cohorts.
- Sector leaders report roughly 100 to 105 independent schools have closed or merged since the 20% VAT on fees took effect on 1 January 2025 and warn more closures are likely as financial pressure mounts.
- The Department for Education and Treasury defend the policy, saying the VAT will raise over £1.8 billion a year by 2029/30 to support state schools, while government census figures also point to broader demographic declines in the overall pupil population.
- Coverage differs on causes and consequences: some outlets and school leaders attribute the sharp, early fall mainly to the VAT, while official DfE analysis stresses long-term birth-rate trends and highlights new state school places and recent school openings.