Overview
- Independent analyst Mary Johnson raised her projection for the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment to 4.7% after May inflation data showed higher consumer prices.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported broad CPI up 4.2% year-over-year and the CPI-W, the index the SSA uses for COLA, up 4.4% over the past 12 months.
- Large year-over-year CPI-W increases in specific categories drove the jump, with fuel oil up about 64.1%, gasoline about 40.7%, and airfare about 25%.
- The Senior Citizens League trimmed its private COLA forecast to 3.8%, and private estimates remain provisional because the Social Security Administration will set the official 2027 COLA in October using July–September CPI-W data.
- About 75 million beneficiaries received a 2.8% COLA in 2026, and analysts say many retirees still face a shortfall because the 2026 increase added roughly $56 on a $2,000 benefit while costs suggest a need closer to $94 per month.