Overview
- AccuWeather projects 11 to 16 named storms with 4 to 7 hurricanes and 2 to 4 major hurricanes, and it estimates 3 to 5 direct U.S. impacts.
- Mexico’s national weather service said at a hurricane seminar in Mérida that at least five tropical cyclones typically make landfall each year and it will release its formal 2026 outlook in April.
- SMN will pilot a cellphone alert this season to warn people about intense rains tied to tropical cyclones so residents can act before flooding begins.
- Meteorologists warn that unusually warm ocean layers can fuel rapid intensification, which can turn a storm dangerous in a short window and cut preparation time.
- Risk is expected to concentrate in the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas in the U.S., while Mexican states flagged for higher odds include Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, Quintana Roo, and Guerrero, with El Niño potentially tilting more activity to the Pacific than the Gulf or Caribbean.