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Prediction Markets Top $1 Billion on Super Bowl Day as Cardi B Bet Prompts CFTC Complaint

The Cardi B cameo exposed divergent rulebooks that now test market integrity under evolving federal oversight.

Overview

  • Kalshi reported more than $1 billion in Super Bowl Sunday trading, a roughly 2,700% year‑over‑year jump, with over $100 million wagered on Bad Bunny’s opening song.
  • Kalshi invoked Rule 6.3(c) to partially settle its Cardi B “perform” market at last traded prices, paying $0.26 to Yes holders and $0.74 to No holders, citing ambiguity over whether she sang.
  • At least one Kalshi trader filed a formal CFTC complaint alleging a Commodity Exchange Act violation tied to the settlement and is seeking $3,700 in damages.
  • Polymarket initially resolved Cardi B to Yes, but the outcome was disputed and sent to UMA token‑holder governance for a final decision.
  • High traffic caused deposit delays for some Kalshi users; the company said funds were safe, reimbursed processing fees, issued credits, and highlighted expanded surveillance with about 200 investigations over the past year.