Overview
- Trading volumes have exploded on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, with reporting that Kalshi processed about $33 billion and Polymarket about $14 billion in June 2026.
- Climate and extreme-weather contracts are growing fast, with climate-related wagers in the hundreds of millions in 2025 and on pace to approach roughly $1 billion in 2026.
- Concrete integrity failures have been reported, including an April 2026 episode where someone allegedly warmed a Charles de Gaulle temperature sensor to change a Polymarket payout and collected about $20,000, and a January 2026 trade that turned roughly $30,000 into $400,000 before a Maduro removal led to a soldier being charged.
- Markets often rely on single data feeds or human-led settlement rules, and concentrated vote power in token governance has left some disputes controlled by a few wallets, creating clear incentives for cheap tampering or insider advantage.
- Responses are uneven: India has taken legal steps that forced Probo to stop real-money trading, banks and platforms have tightened employee and product rules, new climate-focused entrants and partnerships are expanding offerings, and researchers find market participation can increase concern about climate change and shift views.