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3h ago

Prediction Markets Surge as NFL Blocks Super Bowl Ads and Pros Move In

Regulators warn of integrity risks that could harm consumers.

Getty / Futurism
Advertisements by the company Kalshi predicted a victory for Zohran Mamdani in the New York City mayoral election before the votes were counted and polls closed, Nov. 4, 2025.
Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut is among the lawmakers sounding a note of deep skepticism about prediction markets.
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Overview

  • Trading ballooned from about $9 billion in 2024 to more than $44 billion in 2025, with Kalshi nearly hitting $10 billion in January including roughly $8.5 billion tied to sports and about three million new downloads.
  • The NFL barred Super Bowl ads for Kalshi, PredictIt, and Polymarket over legal gray areas and game‑integrity concerns.
  • Professional gamblers and firms such as Susquehanna International Group and Jump Trading are increasingly active, sharpening the edge over casual bettors.
  • New York Attorney General Letitia James issued a Feb. 2 warning about significant financial risk and potential penalties for unlicensed sports wagering in the state.
  • Leagues are split as the NHL partners with platforms, the PGA Tour blocks player endorsements, and the NCAA leader urges a pause on college sports markets, while critics cite insider ‘signal bets’ and ethically fraught geopolitical contracts.