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Prediction Markets Squeezed by Senate Ban as Courts Test State Authority

The actions reflect rising alarm over insider trading risks alongside unresolved fights over who polices event‑betting platforms.

Overview

  • The Senate’s unanimous vote Thursday bars senators and staff from using apps like Kalshi and Polymarket, and leaders are pressing the House to pass a matching restriction next.
  • Recent cases intensified concern, including a DOJ charge that a U.S. Special Forces soldier used classified information to make about $400,000 on Polymarket and reports of well‑timed wagers ahead of a U.S. strike on Iran.
  • Kalshi announced a minors ban and new identity and security checks, including Face ID by default where available, selfie verification, two‑factor authentication, account‑takeover monitoring, deposit‑limit guidance, and proof‑of‑funds requests.
  • Judges on Massachusetts’ highest court questioned Kalshi’s claim that federal derivatives law blocks state gambling oversight of sports‑event contracts, while the CFTC pursues rulemaking and lawsuits arguing it has exclusive authority over event contracts.
  • Institutional interest is emerging, with Bernstein highlighting Kalshi’s first bespoke block trade and a Clear Street access deal, even as new analyses show extreme profit concentration on these platforms and many casual users losing money.