Overview
- Traders pushed the probability of Kash Patel leaving the Trump administration to about 72% on Kalshi after a sharp one‑day jump.
- Other betting markets priced a 23% chance of his departure by the end of April, 46% by June 30, and nearly 75% within a year, alongside tens of thousands of dollars in trades.
- The Atlantic reported active White House discussions about removing senior officials including Patel, with no official confirmation from the administration.
- Those talks followed the removals of Attorney General Pam Bondi and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, which signaled a broader personnel reset.
- Market rules state contracts resolve on an official announcement or a consensus of credible reporting, so the odds reflect expectations rather than proof.