Overview
- Publishers reported on July 1–2 that multiple prediction-market platforms refreshed or launched World Cup referral offers to drive new accounts and trading activity.
- Polymarket activated a $50 CUSE welcome bonus that requires a $20 first deposit and is available to eligible users in states including New York, California, Florida and Texas.
- Kalshi issued several state-targeted $10–$15 codes such as SYRACUSE, OREGONLIVE1 and ALCOM15 that credit bonus trades after users complete identity verification and meet deposit or trading thresholds.
- Live market prices and independent simulations on those platforms currently price the United States as the heavy favorite over Bosnia and Herzegovina, with advancement contracts near $0.83–$0.84 and simulation win probabilities around 70%.
- These promos are limited by state law and platform rules, require code entry at signup and completing verification or trade requirements before credits convert to withdrawable funds, and could materially raise new-user volume on exchange-style markets regulated differently than sportsbooks.