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Prediction Markets Reach Record $45 Billion in June on World Cup Bets

The surge shows platforms can marshal large event-driven liquidity, with unresolved state lawsuits and thin trading raising doubts about durability.

Overview

  • June’s combined trading volume jumped about 75% to roughly $44.8–$45 billion as World Cup wagering lifted activity across Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US.
  • Kalshi led the rally with about $31.5 billion in June volume, an 87% month-over-month increase that gave it the largest share of the total.
  • The FIFA World Cup was the primary trigger for the spike with more than $800 million wagered on Kalshi’s tournament winner market and roughly $3.8 billion placed across World Cup contracts since early June.
  • Independent analyses show most individual contracts remain thinly traded and vulnerable to volatility and bot activity, with about 70% of closed Polymarket markets under $10,000 in reported volume and bots accounting for the bulk of volume in the smallest markets.
  • Legal and business risks now matter to the market’s future because over a dozen U.S. states have sued platforms for unlicensed sports betting, investors have pushed high valuations for operators, and post‑World Cup volumes and court rulings will determine whether June is a new baseline or a short‑lived spike.