Overview
- Swalwell’s suspension, announced Sunday after the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN reported misconduct claims Friday that he denies, triggered a swift shift in betting toward Steyer.
- Kalshi now prices Steyer near 55 percent and Polymarket pegs him closer to 59 percent, with Matt Mahan and Katie Porter clustered around the mid‑teens on both platforms.
- Trading has been heavy, with Polymarket volume topping $9 million and Kalshi governor contracts exceeding $22 million, reflecting rapid repricing as news broke.
- Prediction markets move as users buy and sell contracts tied to outcomes, which can react faster than polls yet reflect bettors’ sentiment rather than votes and can be swayed by attention or deep‑pocketed traders.
- California’s top‑two primary on June 2 will send only two candidates to November in a field with split Democratic support, where GOP commentator Steve Hilton has led some polls, and Steyer’s self‑funded bid — over $120 million with a Forbes‑estimated $2.4 billion net worth — adds reach for proposals like a billionaire tax and lower living costs.