Overview
- Kalshi and Polymarket users correctly called 19 of 24 Academy Award categories, roughly a 79% hit rate, including all major awards.
- The live-action short Oscar ended in a tie between The Singers and Two People Exchanging Saliva, the first tie at the awards in 14 years.
- Kalshi had a dedicated Tie option that about 40 traders bought for a total of $2,365, and those contracts paid out at 100-to-1.
- Polymarket applied its posted rule that a tie settles to the first name alphabetically, declaring The Singers the winner while wagers on Two People went to zero.
- Trading was heavily concentrated in marquee races, with about $60 million on best picture across the sites, compared with $440,736 on Kalshi and $243,091 on Polymarket for live-action short, and the small tie volume has not raised suspicions.