Overview
- Kalshi filed a notice to standardize settlement of person-linked markets at the last odds before a death or when death was reasonably anticipated, with the rule slated to take effect March 17.
- The platform halted a roughly $54–$55 million market on whether Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be out, applied last-traded pricing rather than a death-based payout, and says it reimbursed about $2.2 million in fees and losses.
- Traders filed a proposed class action in federal court alleging Kalshi failed to clearly disclose a death carveout and breached its contract, seeking damages and stronger disclosures.
- Sen. Chris Murphy and Rep. Mike Levin are drafting legislation to curb event contracts tied to government action, war, or death, and Sens. Jeff Merkley and Amy Klobuchar proposed banning senior officials from trading on such platforms.
- The CFTC says it is drafting event‑contract rules as watchdog Public Citizen urges a probe into suspicious, well‑timed Iran wagers flagged by analytics firm Bubblemaps, while Polymarket’s offshore venue drew scrutiny despite removing a nuclear‑detonation market.