Overview
- Bernstein and other brokers, in reports Tuesday, put 2026 volume near $240 billion and mapped a path to about $1 trillion a year by 2030, with Kalshi and Polymarket already at roughly $60 billion year‑to‑date.
- Cantor Fitzgerald names Robinhood and Coinbase as the best public plays, with Robinhood’s Kalshi‑powered hub at a $350 million annualized run rate and Coinbase offering more than 1,000 contracts through Kalshi.
- The legal fight intensified in April as the CFTC, backed by the Justice Department, sued Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois to assert federal preemption, and a federal judge in Arizona issued a temporary restraining order blocking a state prosecution.
- Access is widening through crypto rails, with Binance going live April 9 via a Predict.fun link in Binance Wallet that leaves market creation and resolution to the partner while Binance provides the interface and covers gas fees.
- Washington pressure is building as the industry expands lobbying, companies tighten insider‑trading policies, and a new Science paper warns of manipulation and addiction risks that could push lawmakers to target sports and other high‑volume contracts.