Overview
- Trading in event-linked contracts reached a new monthly high of roughly $29.4 billion, with most volume concentrated at major venues led by Kalshi and Polymarket.
- Retail brokers and trading platforms have begun integrating prediction contracts into their products, giving mass-market users access through partners such as Kalshi and broker portals.
- Market makers and trading firms are supplying deeper on‑exchange liquidity and firms including Galaxy Digital have launched OTC desks to handle large, private event trades.
- Prediction markets are being used for practical hedges and commercial bets and have drawn heavy activity in areas like World Cup winner markets, but this activity is reshaping sportsbook product strategies.
- Researchers and public‑health experts say market prices are a useful signal about sentiment and short‑term probability but warn they do not replace scientific models and note growing concerns about manipulation and insider trading.