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Prediction Market Bettors Threatened Israeli Reporter Over Iran Strike Story

Police in Israel are investigating threats tied to efforts to sway a multimillion‑dollar prediction market.

Overview

  • Emanuel Fabian of The Times of Israel reported a March 10 Iranian missile hit near Beit Shemesh, then received death threats pressuring him to rewrite it as an interception.
  • Fabian filed a police complaint, and authorities opened an investigation after messages cited his home, family details, and a claimed $900,000 loss.
  • The Israel Defense Forces later confirmed the projectile was not intercepted, supporting Fabian’s original account of a direct missile impact.
  • Polymarket said it banned the implicated accounts for violating its rules and will provide user information to law enforcement.
  • The Polymarket contract drew roughly $14–$17 million in volume, and the episode is fueling U.S. proposals such as the 'Death Bets Act' to restrict war- and death-linked markets.