Overview
- Reporters and market analysts documented repeated, unusually large bets placed minutes or hours before President Trump’s market-moving statements on war and policy.
- Oil traders piled into short positions on March 9 after a rush of activity minutes before Trump said the war was “practically over,” and U.S. crude then fell about 25%.
- Unusual bets appeared 14 minutes before Trump’s March 23 Truth Social post about productive talks with Tehran, and oil prices fell roughly 11% after his message.
- Blockchain analysts traced six Polymarket accounts created in February 2026 that won about $1.2 million by betting on a U.S. strike on Iran, and one of those accounts later gained $163,000 on a cease-fire call.
- Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have tightened rules to deter trading on leaks, while the SEC and CFTC have not confirmed any investigation and legal experts say cases hinge on proving the source of the tip.