Overview
- A PPIC report released in late August 2026 estimates Prop 47 was associated with about a 10% rise in unsheltered homelessness from 2015–2019, roughly 7,000 additional people and about 20% of the state’s increase in that period.
- The study finds a 7–8% increase in serious drug-use indicators, measured by overdose deaths, hospitalizations and emergency visits, and a roughly 20% drop in drug treatment admissions driven by fewer criminal-justice and court referrals.
- Researchers used comparisons of California to similar states and counties and within-state county comparisons to estimate effects, but they warn results may be affected by improved point-in-time homeless counts after 2015 and much larger rent growth in California during 2014–2019.
- County-level analysis shows places that added more permanent housing slots after the pandemic saw larger falls in homelessness, while declines in cash assistance to low-income people with disabilities and fewer housing placements were linked to local increases in homelessness.
- The findings have intensified policy debate about whether to prioritize enforcement, expand court-linked and community treatment, or scale housing production and placements, and they come after 2024’s Proposition 36 partially rolled back parts of Prop 47 without adding treatment or housing funding.