Overview
- Jerome Powell told a Harvard audience the Fed will watch public inflation expectations to decide how to respond to the Iran war’s hit to energy costs.
- Oil has jumped more than 50% in four weeks, with Brent trading around $110 to $116 a barrel as U.S. gasoline nears $4 a gallon and input costs for plastics and fertilizer climb.
- Treasury yields have risen and recent weak U.S. bond auctions pointed to growing investor concern about future inflation.
- Traders have largely dropped bets on near‑term interest rate cuts and now see a higher chance the Fed could raise rates this year.
- A University of Michigan survey showed a sharp rise in one‑year inflation views, and Fed officials warned that repeated price shocks could shake longer‑term expectations anchored near 2%.