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Post-Referendum Polls Show Stable Blocs, Modest M5S Rise

Pollsters say the shifts are minor, with only sustained repetition over weeks signaling real change.

Overview

  • A new SWG survey reports Fratelli d’Italia at 29.5 percent, unchanged from before the referendum, pointing to steady balance between the two coalitions.
  • Ipsos data analyzed by Nando Pagnoncelli shows Fratelli d’Italia down just over one point to 26.7 percent and Forza Italia up to about 9.5 percent.
  • The Movimento 5 Stelle gains roughly one point in post‑referendum polling, a small rise that analysts say merits attention inside the opposition camp.
  • Pollster Antonio Noto calls the week‑to‑week movements normal and says only repeated readings over several weeks would indicate a real shift in voter preferences.
  • Analysts note the referendum drew an atypical electorate, with about 15 percent who skipped recent national and European elections, so its outcome does not translate directly to a general vote.