Overview
- An M5.8 solar flare from sunspot AR4436 on Sunday launched a coronal mass ejection at roughly 650 km/s and triggered a moderate high‑frequency radio blackout over the Atlantic and parts of eastern Africa, according to NOAA.
- NOAA and the UK Met Office say most of the ejected material should miss Earth, though a late Tuesday into early Wednesday UTC glancing arrival could bring a minor G1 geomagnetic storm.
- Aurora could become visible at higher latitudes if the shock arrives, with the Met Office highlighting the best chances across northern Scotland and comparable geomagnetic locations where skies are clear.
- Any effects are expected to be limited, with brief HF radio disruptions most likely and only minor risks to satellites and GPS performance, while power grid impacts are not anticipated.
- Forecasters are tracking active regions AR4436 and AR4432 for additional flares, and the Met Office notes high‑speed solar wind from a coronal hole around May 15 could keep activity modestly elevated.