Overview
- Eleven candidates are on the ballot, with four to five contenders—António José Seguro, André Ventura, João Cotrim de Figueiredo, Luís Marques Mendes and Henrique Gouveia e Melo—clustered in a tight race that is expected to force a 8 February runoff.
- Surveys place Chega leader Ventura around 18–24 percent and often competitive for first place, yet more than 60 percent of voters say they would reject him in a head‑to‑head second round.
- Recent polls have shown the Socialist António José Seguro edging into a narrow lead, with liberal Cotrim de Figueiredo and conservative Marques Mendes close behind, while ex‑admiral Gouveia e Melo has lost ground.
- Voter enthusiasm appears high with reported turnout intent above 90 percent, but roughly one‑third of respondents remain undecided, leaving the first‑round order uncertain.
- Portugal’s semi‑presidential system gives the head of state powers to veto or refer laws, command the armed forces and dissolve parliament, a backdrop that heightens the stakes as Chega has surged to become the second‑largest force in the legislature.