Overview
- Ken Paxton is the Republican nominee and will face Democrat James Talarico in November after defeating John Cornyn in the GOP runoff, setting up an unexpectedly competitive statewide contest.
- U.S. Census data show Texas added roughly 2.6 million residents since 2020 and nearly 400,000 in 2025, concentrated in fast‑growing suburbs and exurbs that house many recent transplants.
- Polling from UnidosUS/BSP Research/Shaw & Co. finds President Trump’s disapproval near 67% among Hispanic voters in Texas and a 54% to 28% Democratic edge on the generic House ballot with that group.
- Migration data from moving firms show a large share of newcomers came from states such as California and Florida, and experts say these transplants are less tied to old Texas voting patterns, creating more persuadable voters.
- Republican structural advantages remain strong—no Democrat has won statewide since 1994 and GOP turnout operations are robust—but both nominees carry clear vulnerabilities, and parties may reallocate money and attention based on the new data.