Overview
- Polymarket archived a yearslong market on whether a nuclear weapon would detonate by set dates after online backlash, removing a contract that had posted a 22% year‑end probability and attracted more than $800,000 in volume.
- Trading tied to the Feb. 28 U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran surged on Polymarket, with roughly $529 million wagered on timing markets and a late burst of four‑figure bets documented by The New York Times.
- Blockchain analysts highlighted suspected insider activity, citing six newly created accounts that together netted about $1.2 million and a trader known as “Magamyman” who made over $553,000 on strike‑ and Khamenei‑related bets.
- Israeli prosecutors in mid‑February charged a military reservist and a civilian with serious security offenses for allegedly using classified intelligence to place Polymarket wagers.
- U.S. scrutiny is building as the CFTC advances formal rulemaking and lawmakers, including Sen. Chris Murphy, pursue bans on death‑ and war‑linked betting, while rival Kalshi invoked a death carveout and reimbursed fees on its Khamenei market.