Polymarket Odds Flip to Favor Fed Pause in October

The rapid shift to a hold reflects traders reacting to recent inflation data and now leaves incoming jobs and CPI reports as the key tests before the Oct. 27–28 FOMC decision.

Overview

Polymarket reversed course between Sept. 27 and Sept. 30, moving from a market that priced a 25‑basis‑point hike as most likely to one that now favors no change for the Oct. 27–28 Fed meeting.
As of the end of Sept. 30, the contract put roughly a 57%–66% chance on a hold and about a 34%–42% chance on a 25‑basis‑point hike, with the exact print varying by snapshot.
The October Polymarket market has drawn heavy interest, with trading volume of about $17–20 million, making it a material venue for betting on the Fed’s next move.
Polymarket pricing has tracked conventional markets such as CME fed funds futures and Kalshi and moves quickly when inflation prints, jobs data, Treasury yields, or Fed comments change expectations.
Because the contract settles on the federal funds target rate named in the official FOMC statement, traders say upcoming inflation and jobs reports will determine whether the current pause pricing holds or shifts back toward a hike.