Overview
- Democrats hold a 10-point generic-ballot lead in Wednesday's Emerson likely-voter poll, while a Harvard-Harris survey of registered voters shows a 50-50 tie.
- GOP-commissioned district polls report Trump's approval underwater in six competitive seats, including WI-1, VA-1, MI-4, IA-3, CO-3 and AZ-6.
- Prediction markets now favor Democrats to win the House, a chamber Republicans control 217–212 where only a few seats would flip the majority.
- Emerson finds Democrats gaining with independents, Hispanic voters and women, which helps explain the national edge.
- Recent Virginia redistricting approved in April creates bluer seats, and outside models say that shift could lift Democrats in close races.