Overview
- A Public Policy Institute of California survey shows Democrat Xavier Becerra leading at 23% while several other recent polls put Republican Steve Hilton ahead, producing a tight contest for the top-two primary slots.
- Becerra's rise in polls followed former candidate Eric Swalwell's April exit and reflects gains among loyal Democrats, Latino voters and no-party-preference voters, according to party officials and poll comparisons.
- Tom Steyer remains a significant spender and contender but trails in the PPIC snapshot at roughly 15%, with Chad Bianco and Katie Porter polling behind him in single digits to low teens.
- Procedural factors could swing the outcome because mail ballots were mailed in early May, early returns were low, and recent ballot custody disputes prompted state action to protect ballots.
- California's top-two 'jungle' primary means the two highest vote-getters will advance to November regardless of party, keeping both a Democrat-versus-Republican and a two-Republican fall matchup plausible.