Polls Show Lula Gaining as Dark Horse Revelations Weaken Flávio Bolsonaro

Overview

• The Intercept's May publication of messages and audio about Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating film funding with banker Daniel Vorcaro triggered a political hit that polls have captured.
• Genial/Quaest data from June 10 show Lula leading nationally and Flávio losing support especially among independents, young voters, women and evangélicos.
• The Federal Police has opened a line of inquiry into transfers linked to the Dark Horse film and multiple petitions asking the Supreme Court to expand probes have been filed, with no final rulings yet.
• Public criticism from right‑of‑center figures such as Romeu Zema and a hardline reaction from Bolsonaro allies including Eduardo Bolsonaro have deepened divisions and strained state alliances in Minas Gerais, Bahia and Rio de Janeiro.
• Despite Flávio's erosion, other right and center‑right alternatives remain weak and fragmented, leaving the opposition divided and raising the risk that legal findings could translate into electoral or eligibility consequences if they become formal charges.