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Polls Show Democrats Gain Midterm Edge as Voters Reject ICE Raids

The polling reflects fallout from Minnesota raids, including DHS leadership changes.

Overview

  • An NBC News survey of 1,000 registered voters (Feb. 27–Mar. 3, ±3.1 pts) shows voters prefer Democratic control of Congress 50% to 44%.
  • Majorities oppose ICE immigration tactics and recent migrant raids, with 54% against and 44% in support in the NBC poll.
  • Trump’s ratings are weak on key issues: 36% approve of his handling of inflation and cost of living, and he is underwater on foreign policy and Iran.
  • The Democratic Party posts just 30% positive and 52% negative favorability—worse than the GOP (37%/51%) and even ICE (38%/56%)—though Trump’s personal rating is 41% positive and higher than several prominent Democrats tested.
  • A University of North Florida poll of 786 likely Florida voters (Feb. 21–Mar. 2, ±4 pts) finds a 48%–49% split on Trump’s immigration handling and 55% disapproval of ICE, with independents strongly negative (60% disapprove).