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Polls Put Opposition Ahead but No Jewish Majority as Eisenkot Rises

Shifting surveys and campaign flashpoints leave Arab parties decisive, heightening worries about democratic norms.

Overview

  • A Channel 12 poll, which was released Monday, put Gadi Eisenkot’s new Yashar party at about 24 seats and made it the largest single party in that survey.
  • A Kan 11 survey published over the weekend projected the opposition bloc at roughly 69 Knesset seats while showing its Jewish parties short of a 61-seat majority.
  • The Democrats held primaries and launched their campaign after choosing a slate led by Yair Golan with incumbents Naama Lazimi, Gilad Kariv and Efrat Rayten in top spots.
  • A far-right ‘Thousands March to Gaza’ organized by the Nachala movement drew expected participation from cabinet ministers and prompted the IDF to declare the march route a closed military zone.
  • Campaign controversies and institutional fights, including an AI campaign video criticized for referencing Eisenkot’s late son and a symbolic U.S. House vote by 103 Democrats on Israel funding, are intensifying polarization and raising concern about how security and legal moves could shape the October 27 election outcome.