Polls Put Lula–Flávio Runoff in a Dead Heat

Overview

• Fresh nationwide surveys show a statistical tie in a potential second round: Genial/Quaest has Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro at 41% each, and Meio/Ideia measures 47% to 45% within the margin of error.
• In first‑round tests, Lula remains numerically ahead at roughly 40% while Flávio holds the mid‑30s and Tarcísio de Freitas registers competitiveness when included.
• Genial/Quaest finds both candidates with very high rejection levels — 56% for Lula and 55% for Flávio — as Lula’s standing versus Flávio in a runoff has slid from a double‑digit edge in December to parity in March.
• Regional polls diverge: Real Time Big Data reports Flávio leading in Rio de Janeiro by 40% to 35%, while Paraná Pesquisas shows Lula at 50.3% to Flávio’s 30.5% in Maranhão.
• Government evaluation has worsened in Genial/Quaest (51% disapprove, 44% approve), and Lula has shelved a trip to Chile to focus on domestic coordination as allies call for more delivery and outreach.