Overview
- The local and devolved contests, which take place Thursday, are forecast to deliver steep setbacks for Labour, with elections expert Robert Hayward estimating about 1,850 council seats lost in England.
- Projections reported by multiple outlets indicate Reform UK could gain around 1,550 seats and the Green Party about 500, largely taking votes from Labour and, in some areas, the Conservatives.
- A More in Common London mega-poll shows Labour down to 28 percent citywide with the Greens at 20 percent, putting Greens ahead in Hackney and within two points in Islington, Lambeth and Lewisham, while Reform leads in outer-borough Havering and surges in Bexley, Bromley and Barking and Dagenham.
- Polling points to hazardous devolved results for Labour, with surveys suggesting Plaid Cymru and Reform could outpace Labour in Wales under the new proportional system and the SNP poised to strengthen control in Scotland.
- Top pollsters including John Curtice warn the scale of losses could leave Starmer vulnerable to internal challenges, though reports note party rules and the lack of an obvious successor could make immediate removal difficult.