Overview
- A Channel 13 survey published Thursday projects the pro‑Netanyahu bloc at 54 Knesset seats and the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot at 52, with Eisenkot’s Yashar listed as the largest single party and Likud reduced to 18 seats.
- Small lists and Arab party mergers are pivotal because Israel’s 3.25 percent electoral threshold means votes for lists that fail to enter the Knesset transfer seats and can flip the balance between blocs.
- National Security Minister Itamar Ben‑Gvir has publicly attacked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for seeking centrist voters, while Netanyahu is campaigning to draw moderates back to Likud to regain seats.
- Polls diverge noticeably: the Channel 13/HaMadad survey (886 respondents, ±3.3 percent) contrasts with a Maariv poll that gives the center‑left blocs a lead, underlining how different methods change projected outcomes.
- The seat math remains unsettled so coalition talks could hinge on a handful of seats; the result matters to governance and daily policy because a single-party swing or threshold failure would reshape which parties control ministries and budgets.