Overview
- A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll released Friday, Aug. 14 found likely voters favor Proposition 40 48% to 41% with 11% undecided, based on an online survey of 4,207 registered voters and a 2,310 likely-voter sample.
- Proposition 40 would impose a one-time 5% tax on residents with more than $1 billion in net worth as of Jan. 1, 2026, with some exceptions and options to spread payments over multiple years for some taxpayers.
- Opponents have placed two rival measures, Propositions 41 and 42, on the same ballot that are written to supersede or nullify Prop 40 if they receive more votes, and the poll found many voters remain unaware of those countermeasures.
- The ballot measure has fractured Democrats and labor groups, drawing progressive backers like Sen. Bernie Sanders and SEIU‑UHW West while Gov. Gavin Newsom and other mainstream Democrats oppose it, and it polls far stronger with younger, minority, lower‑income and union households.
- High‑profile investor warnings about founders and capital leaving California have sharpened the economic debate, and analysts caution that passage could produce near‑term revenue but also raise longer‑term risks tied to relocation, turnout of undecided voters and heavy outside spending.