Overview
- The Public Policy Institute of California poll, conducted Sept. 4–10, finds 52% of likely voters favor Proposition 40, the one-time 5% tax on billionaires, while Propositions 41 and 42 each have narrow majorities that could invalidate the tax if they receive more yes votes.
- Under California law the competing measure with the most yes votes governs, so Passage of Prop. 41 or 42 with higher totals would prevent Prop. 40 from taking effect even if Prop. 40 also passes.
- Billionaire opponents have poured more than $100 million into the countermeasures, and backers of Prop. 40 include labor groups that say the tax is needed to replace federal health funding lost to recent cuts.
- Voters report strong frustration with a 14-measure ballot and deep worry about the economy, with cost of living and affordability ranking as top issues shaping choices at the top of the ticket.
- Democratic nominee Xavier Becerra leads the governor’s race by about 60% to 38%, while estimates of revenue from the billionaire tax remain uncertain because of valuation methods and possible tax avoidance or relocations by the ultrawealthy.