Overview
- An Ipsos B&A survey published Thursday, based on 659 voters polled 7–12 May, puts Janice Boylan on 21% and Daniel Ennis on 18% with a ±4% margin of error.
- Second-preference responses place Ennis as the top transfer target on 15%, pointing to gains in later counts.
- Under Ireland’s single transferable vote, lower-ranked candidates are eliminated and their votes move to next choices, which can flip an early lead.
- Independent Gerry Hutch stands third on 14% as reports note Gardaí have called him the Hutch gang figurehead and say he is under investigation in Spain.
- Voters choose a new TD on 22 May to replace Paschal Donohoe after his move to the World Bank, and the poll preceded this week’s Bertie Ahern controversy.