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Poll Puts Fine Gael’s Sean Kyne Ahead in Galway West Bye-Election

Transfer arithmetic now looms large in a crowded 17-candidate race.

Overview

  • The Irish Times/TG4/Ipsos B&A poll shows Sean Kyne on 17% first preferences, with Noel Thomas on 16% and Labour’s Helen Ogbu on 12%, and it projects Kyne to win after transfers.
  • Under Ireland’s ranked-choice system, lower-placed candidates are eliminated and their votes move to those still in contention, which could favor Kyne in such a fragmented field.
  • The survey of 530 eligible voters, conducted by phone between 1 and 5 May with a margin of error of about ±4%, indicates the race remains tight despite the early lead.
  • Labour has asked RTÉ’s Director General Kevin Bakhurst to include Ogbu in upcoming Galway West TV debates, arguing the poll shows she is now the leading left candidate.
  • Voters named the Galway bypass and housing as top concerns, many said recent fuel protests influenced their choice, and the poll shows Fianna Fáil support down to 8% from 16.8% in 2024, with polling day set for 22 May.