Overview
- A YouGov poll for Sky News of 2,041 adults on 21–22 December found 50% think Keir Starmer will be replaced by the end of 2026, with 31% saying he will probably go within a year and 19% saying he will definitely be out; 35% believe he will remain.
- Public sentiment on the economy is stark, with 71% saying conditions worsened over the past year and just 7% seeing improvement, while only 15% expect their own finances to improve next year and 40% expect them to get worse.
- Separate YouGov voting-intention figures show Reform UK on 25%, Labour 20%, Conservatives 19%, Liberal Democrats 15% and Greens 15%.
- Defra confirmed a policy change lifting the agricultural property relief threshold to £2.5 million, saying it listened to farming concerns; the department said the shift would halve the number of farms affected and the NFU welcomed the move.
- Reports point to unease on Labour benches with figures such as Wes Streeting, Andy Burnham, Shabana Mahmood and Angela Rayner mooted as potential challengers if May’s local elections go badly, while Labour chair Anna Turley insists Starmer will still be prime minister next Christmas.