Overview
- A GQR survey commissioned by Senate Majority PAC shows Ken Paxton ahead of Sen. John Cornyn 47% to 42% among likely Republican runoff voters, based on 600 interviews with a margin of error of ±4 points.
- The poll points to a turnout advantage for Paxton, with 85% of his supporters rating themselves a 10 out of 10 on likelihood to vote, compared with 70% of Cornyn’s backers.
- Respondents in the survey leaned heavily MAGA and gave Paxton a net positive image at 56% favorable to 43% unfavorable, while Cornyn registered 47% favorable to 51% unfavorable.
- One Nation, a Thune-aligned group that spent nearly $11 million for Cornyn before the March 3 primary, has not resumed spending in recent weeks, as the NRSC continues to signal Cornyn as its preferred nominee.
- Trump has not endorsed either candidate and has tied his decision to the SAVE America Act, a voter identification push, while the May 26 runoff will decide who faces Democrat James Talarico in November.